Our Thought Leadership
The Carlyle Compass
Welcome to our weekly newsletter that brings together the latest research and market insights from our global team.
How Much Does AI Rhyme with shAle?
Guest author Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways, examines how today’s AI capex boom mirrors the shale surge of the 2010s, and what a shift toward “asset-heavy” tech could mean for industry valuations.
Past Editions
November 18, 2025 - Newton’s Third Law of Economics, by Jason Thomas
November 11, 2025 - No Easy Way Out, by Jason Thomas
November 4, 2025 - Beyond the Headlines, by Ruulke Bagijn and Hannah Khizgilov
October 28, 2025 - The Currency of Last Resort, by Jeff Currie
October 21, 2025 - Sleep Now in the Fire, by Jason Thomas
October 14, 2025 - Battle for the Borrower, by Matt Savino
October 7, 2025 - Out of Left Field, by Jason Thomas
September 30, 2025 - Oracular Warning, by Jason Thomas
September 23, 2025 - From Belts and Roads to Pipes and Dreams, by Jeff Currie with James Gutman
September 16, 2025 - Resilient Growth and Selective Opportunity in a Volatile Market, by Brian Bernasek and Steve Wise
September 10, 2025 - Through the Looking Glass, by Jason Thomas
August 19, 2025 - Let Them Eat Compute, by Jason Thomas
August 12, 2025 - Risking Price Stability to Solve Ukraine?, by Jeff Currie
August 5, 2025 - A Whiff of Stagflation, by Jason Thomas
July 29, 2025 - Taking the W, by Jason Thomas
July 22, 2025 - Between Star Systems, by Ruulke Bagijn and Hannah Khizgilov
July 15, 2025 - Mid-Year Update - Revisiting Our 5 Questions for 2025, by Jason Thomas
July 8, 2025 - The New Martial Plan, by Jeff Currie
July 1, 2025 - Credit Markets: A Wall of Worry vs Strong Technicals, by Matt Savino
June 24, 2025 - Private Assets Are No Longer Alternatives, by Jason Thomas
June 17, 2025 - Capital Implications of a More Dangerous World, by Jeff Currie
June 10, 2025 - Private Markets as Shock Absorbers, by Jason Thomas
June 3, 2025 - Why Default Rates Could Move Higher, by Jason Thomas
May 20, 2025 - This Time, Deficits Really May Matter, by Jason Thomas
May 13, 2025 - The Case for Moving into Energy Now, by Jeff Currie
May 6, 2025 - Will Tariff Shocks Be Minor or Major?, by Jason Thomas
April 29, 2025 - Rare Earth Materials’ Rare Potential for Pain, by Jason Thomas
April 22, 2025 - PE Markets in Q1: IPO Uptick a Bright Spot, by Ruulke Bagijn and Peter Cornelius
April 15, 2025 - If Treasuries Aren’t a ‘Hedge’, by Jason Thomas
April 8, 2025 - A Tale of Tariffs Told Through Copper, by Jeff Currie
April 1, 2025 - Private Credit’s Two Emerging Growth Areas, by Jason Thomas and Mark Jenkins
March 25, 2025 - The Explicit and Implied Toll of Tariffs, by Jason Thomas
March 18, 2025 - Evergreen Funds Transforming PE Market, by Ruulke Bagijn and Peter Cornelius
March 11, 2025 - Understanding the Security/Energy Nexus, by Jeff Currie
March 4, 2025 - Why Are US Stocks Lagging?, by Jason Thomas
February 25, 2025 - Neither a Hard nor Soft Landing, by Jason Thomas
February 18, 2025 - LBO Financing Enters New Era, by Matt Savino
February 4, 2025 - Reading AI’s Capex Tea Leaves, by Jason Thomas
January 28, 2025 - The Coming Paradigm Shift in Investing, by Jeff Curie
January 21, 2025 - A Brighter 2025 Likely for PE, by Jason Thomas
January 14, 2025 - The Return of the ‘Term Premium’, by Jason Thomas
January 7, 2025 - By Jason Thomas
December 17, 2024 - Outperformance Continues to Characterize PE, by Ruulke Bagijn
December 10, 2024 - Higher Rates Won’t Kill M&A, by Jason Thomas
December 3, 2024 - Natural Gas Nudging Out Oil, by James Gutman
November 19, 2024 - Confusion over Curves and Landings, by Jason Thomas
November 12, 2024 - The Complexity of Who Pays for Tariffs, by Jason Thomas
November 5, 2024 - Beyond the Impending Rate Cut, by Jason Thomas
October 29, 2024 - How Index Investing Fosters Private Equity, by Jeff Currie
October 22, 2024 - The Implications of AI’s Voracious Energy Appetite, by Jason Thomas
October 15, 2024 - What’s Driving the Leveraged Finance Surge, by Hannah Khizgilov
October 8, 2024 - The Labor Market’s Two Key Messages, by Jason Thomas
October 1, 2024 - Why We’re Bullish on Copper, by Jeff Currie
September 24, 2024 - A Dovishly Hawkish Fed?, by Jason Thomas
September 10, 2024 - Arriving at a New ‘Normal’ for Rates, by Jason Thomas
August 20, 2024 - The ‘Natural’ Interest Rate Pedestal, by Jason Thomas
August 13, 2024 - Who Wins in the New Rate Cycle, by Jeff Currie
August 6, 2024 - Let’s Not Catastrophize the Labor Data, by Jason Thomas
July 30, 2024 - The China Cloud Over Commodity Prices, by Jeff Currie
July 23, 2024 - Our Annual Look-Ahead at Mid-Year, by Jason Thomas
July 16, 2024 - Rate Cuts Paint a Brighter PE Picture, by Peter Cornelius
July 9, 2024 - The New UK Prime Minister’s Priority, by Jason Thomas
June 25, 2024 - What’s Behind the M&A Slump, by Jason Thomas
June 18, 2024 - Opportunities in European Infrastructure, by Jeff Currie
June 11, 2024 - For AI’s Long-Term Value, Look Downstream, by Jason Thomas
June 4, 2024 - A More Optimistic Take on Europe, by Jason Thomas
May 29, 2024 - When Securitization Yields Phantom Diversification, by Jason Thomas
May 21, 2024 - A Sobering Housing Outlook, by Jason Thomas
May 14, 2024 - The Real Driver of Rate Rises, by Jason Thomas
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